Still a Gemstone? Response to trading update

It was Friday 9th of December at 9:45am.

I was in a good mood… made plans to meet up with a few friends after work for a burger and some drinks. Even though I was still grinding away at my dead end, high volume processing work I was pretty happy.

Whilst bopping away at my obnoxiously loud music, I get a message from my mate…

“hey i think Sirtex has a new announcement”

“Oh you mean the GS change in substantial shareholder announcement? saw it yesterday, it was nothing.” (lol)

“Na take a look”

I flick my phone to Commsec, and before I could even get through the 2nd paragraph of the trading update, I already knew I was not going to get anything done at work that day. I had previously priced future dosage sales growth in line with historical rates of around 16%, and coming from a period of strong performance, I’m sure no one really expected this.

Management guidance: fall in dosage growth from 15% to 5% compared to the previous corresponding period. Full year sales downgraded to 5%-11%. EBITDA $75M.

I put in an sell order for $24.00 which is me admitting to the fact that I will be taking a loss. By the time 10AM comes, I’m glued to my phone waiting…

For some reason nothing happens on my screen for like a few minutes after opening, but I get a message from my group:

“oh I thought those would be bot orders, guess not haha”

I frantically check again, the opening price was like $13.00 and my heart sinks. Half my portfolio value is missing.

So I thought it would be cool to get your opinions on my updated price target.

90/12/2016 close: $16.00

Opinion: $15-$22.

If Sirtex turns super saiyan: $33-$34.

sirtex-valuation-update-by-danielbyb

See attachment for overview.

Peace,

Daniel

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s